Saturday, September 28, 2013


Example:

delta -- .46 -- every $1 up or down - $.46 up/down change in option price
gama - .03 - rate of change of delta - $1 change in option price will result into change of delta .46 + or - .03, so .49  or . 43
theta -  .11 - loss of option value with passage of time - .46 - .11 = .35
vega -       - rate of change of volatility

If you’re an option buyer, high gamma is good as long as your forecast is correct. That’s because as your option moves in-the-money, delta will approach 1 more rapidly. But if your forecast is wrong, it can come back to bite you by rapidly lowering your delta.


If you’re an option seller and your forecast is incorrect, high gamma is the enemy. That’s because it can cause your position to work against you at a more accelerated rate if the option you’ve sold moves in-the-money. But if your forecast is correct, high gamma is your friend since the value of the option you sold will lose value more rapidly.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Twitter play

GSVC ~ 15

buy naked Mar 14 call @22 

Canadian oil/gas
PGH ~6 

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

SPY oct 19

call/put ratio open interest >1 and high interest at 175-- bullish

VIX oct 16

call/put open interest <1 -- bullish

IWM oct 19

call/put open interest >1 -- bullish

QQQ oct 19

call/put open interest >1 -- bullish





Sunday, September 15, 2013


/////////////OCT WEEK 3///////////////////////////////
**1. AXP earnings date 10/14 -- credit card, check MA 10/28
2. GS    earnings date 10/17 -- financials
3. SLB earnings date 10/18-- oil services
///////////////OCT WEEK 4//////////////
**4. FB    earnings date 10/21 - social media
**5. CREE earnings date 10/22 -- industrial
6.  CELG: earnings date 10/24 -- biotech
//////////////OCT WEEK 5////////////
7.  BIDU earnings date 10/28 -- china search - target $155
8.  YNDX: earnings date 10/28  -- russian search



//////////////NOV WEEK 1/////////////////
 9. EOG earnings date 11/4  -- oil/gas
10.  FLT: earnings date 11/4 --
11. ACT: earnings date 11/4
12.  JAZZ: earnings date 11/5
///////////////NOV WEEK2//////////////////
13.  NQ earnings date 11/8 -  china mobile  target $30
14.  QIHU earnings date 11/15 - china search target $100
///////////////NOV WEEK3//////////////////
15.  GMRC : earnings date 11/25 - coffee

**16. VCLK earnings date 10/28

Saturday, September 14, 2013

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1649582-i-told-you-these-stocks-would-outperform-the-market-they-are-still-undervalued-too?source=cnbc
good read

http://www.terrystips.com/blog/

Sunday, September 1, 2013

AXP

1. naked call $75 Jan -
Reason : RSI 28, below 50 moving avg, implied volatility at almost at historic low.
What it means:

-- The price of any option is comprised of "intrinsic" value if it is "in-the-money," and "time premium." A call option is in-the-money if the option's strike price is below the price of the underlying stock. A put option is in-the-money if the option's strike price is above the price of the underlying stock. Time premium is some amount above and beyond any intrinsic value and essentially represents the amount paid to the writer of the option in order to induce him to assume the risk of writing the option. Out-of-the-money options have no intrinsic value and are comprised solely of time premium.

-- The current implied volatility for the options of a given stock or commodity is "high" or "low" on a historical basis. This knowledge is key in determining the best trading strategies to employ for a given security. If the current implied volatility is close to historic low and relative strength is low 30, buy necked call

 --If the current implied volatility is close to historic high and relative strength close to 90s, buy necked put or sell the put premium.

 Riddle:

-- The higher the volatility level for a given stock or futures market, the more time premium there will be in the prices for the options of that stock or futures market.

-- Conversely, the lower the volatility the lower the time premium. Thus if you are buying options, ideally you would like to do so when volatility is low which will result in paying relatively less for an option than if volatility were high.

-- Conversely, if you are writing options you will generally want to do so when volatility is high in order maximize the amount of time premium you receive.
Option idea:

1. GMRC : Single cup Keurig coffee brewing system for supermarket and food store
                  86
          RIS   Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                   EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
           98    35                   58                 17                11                  18       15          8                  21

2.FLT: Provider of specialized payment products and services to commercial fleets, oil companies and petroleum mkt - 24 countries in North Am, Europe, Asia, Africa

                 103+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             96     30                   37                 19                29                  30       51          6                  53

3. JAZZ: develops specialty drugs in the therapeutic area of narcolepsy, oncology, pain, psychiatry and others

                 87+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             94     30                   31                 29                68                  44       52          8                  38

4. LAD

5. PRLB

6. NUS

7. TRIP

8. CELG: makes treatments for cancer and immune-inflammatory related deseases by regulating cells, genes and protens..

                 139+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             93     21                   25                 19                17                  39       46          1                 49
9 TNGO

10. AVG

11 LL

12. WWWW

13. FB


                 41+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             97     33                   58                 50                53                  16       43          3                13


14 YNDX: russian search 60%


                 32+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             89     32                   47                 38                34                  27       38          13                0


15 ACT:generic and branded drugs for hypertension, elevated cholesterol


                 135+
            RIS  Annual           Last Qtr        Next Qtr      Last Qtr        ROE   Pretax    Mgr      Vol  Debt
                    EPS % chg     EPS % chg   EPS % chg  Sales % chg             margin   %own
             91     38                   42                 54                47                  21       19          1               163
 

16 QIHU

17. NQ




SPDRs sector


1.  XLF: Financial (WFC 8.5%, BRK.B 8.4%, JPM 8.4%, C 6.32%, BAC 6.3%, GS 2.8%, AXP 2.8%)

2. XLV: Health care (JNJ 13.45%, pfe 10%, mrk 7.45%,gild 4.8%, amg 4.1%, unh 3.8%, celg 3.1%)

3. XLI: industrial (ge 11.6%,utx 5.7%, unp 5%, 3m 4.7%, ba 4.6%, hon 4.3, ups 4%)

4. XLY: consumer discretionary (cmcsa 6.5, dis 6.4, hd 6.2, amzn 6, mcd 5.3, sbux 2.9)

5. XLP:consumer staples ()pg 14, ko 9.8,pm 9.3, wmt 8, cvs 5,pep 4.7, mo 4, cl 3.5, cost 3.4)

6. XLB: materials (dd 10.7, mon 10.7, dow 8.5, px 7, fcx 6, ip 4.3)

7  XLK: technology (aapl 14, msft 8, goog 8, ibm 7, vz 5, csco 4.5, orcl 4, qcom 3.7,intc 3)

8 XLU: utilities (duk 10, so 8, nee 7.5, d 7, exc 5.3, aep 4.5, pcg 4, ed 4)

9 XLE: energy (xom 17,cvx 15, slb 7, oxy 4, cop 4, apc 3, hal 3, eog 3, nov 2)